THE PERENNIAL PROBLEM on floods brought about by the rainy days — and the government’s failure to come up with “existent” flood control projects, may last until the first quarter of next year.
This comes as the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), urged Filipinos to prepare for above-normal rainfall as La Niña phenomenon would likely affect the Philippines.
Citing its own data, Pagasa experts observed its presence in the tropical Pacific Ocean condition since September.
La Niña is a weather phenomenon embarking on unusually cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
The sea surface temperatures, according to the government weather bureau, showed signs of cooling before it eventually reached the La Niña threshold last month.
Pagasa said climate models indicate that this La Niña episode may last at least until March — or February at the very least, with the east section of the country at the receiving end of the above normal rainfall.
“This can be due to increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and combinations of rain-bearing weather systems, which may cause floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides,” the weather bureau said.
With still two and a half months before 2025 comes to close, the Philippines already had 17 tropical cyclones.
While the annual average number of typhoons entering the Philippine area of responsibility is 20, Pagasa said that such would go beyond “the usual,” based on the agency’s projections.
For the current month, Pagasa hinted at the possibility of the Philippines being hit by two to four tropical cyclones, three in November, two in December and one a piece in the first three months of 2026.
The weather bureau previously provided the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones that may develop within or enter PAR in the next six months:
Aside from tropical cyclones, inclement weather disturbances like low pressure areas, the intertropical convergence zone, easterlies, the shear line, localized thunderstorms, and the northeast monsoon or amihan (which is expected to begin soon) may also occur.
