WITH elections taking place a few months from now, both the executive and legislative branch of the government are taking a radical shift in their priorities effectively decimating equally urgent concerns.
Since 2011, talks about “The Big One”, a tragedy waiting to happen, have been going on while experts have time and again warned that a killer temblor could turn the entire Metro Manila into Ground Zero.
The effect of an 8.2 magnitude earthquake —as claimed in the most recent study of the Manila Trench which conducts research in the Pacific region —could spell no less than 55,000 casualties, half of which could be “dead on the spot.”
Shouldn’t we brace up in anticipation?
For one, there’s no way to stop —or predict —an earthquake.
‘If we were to believe the Manila Trench report, “The Big One” could paint a doomsday scenario sometime soon… Indeed, the thought of a large-magnitude earthquake hitting these areas is a terrifying prospect.’
PRONE TO NATURAL HAZARDS
Located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, the Philippines has a history of large earthquakes and it is in the list of those most prone to natural hazards in the world, based on data released by the World Atlas.
Aside from the Philippines, other countries on the list include Japan, Indonesia, China, Iran, Turkey, Peru, the United States of America (USA), Italy, and Mexico.
Top quake-prone countries account for the majority of the world’s damages and casualties in earthquakes, the latest of which took place in Ishikawa, Japan with a recorded 7.5 magnitude tremor and that of Turkey’s 7.8 magnitude earthquake that killed no less than 55,000 people.
PREVIOUS PH TREMORS
The strongest tremor —Magnitude 8 on the Richter scale— in the country took place in Mindanao on August 16, 1976 with a death toll of 8,000.
In 1968, an Intensity 8 quake hit Casiguran in Aurora province, killing about 270 people. It also caused the Ruby Tower in Manila to collapse.
In 1990, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit Luzon leaving 1,600 deaths and 4,390 injuries. Damage was pegged at P10 billion, an incident that featured Philippines in global news channels.
In 2012, a 6.7 quake resulting in the death of at least 500 individuals shook Negros, followed by a 7.2-magnitude tremor that also hit Bohol, killing 93 people.
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER?
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PhiVolcs), mandated to mitigate disasters that may arise geo-tectonic phenomena, cited the urgent need to prepare for “The Big One” which could essentially wipe out Metro Manila and kill thousands in just a matter of minutes.
As compared to the tenacity of the previous temblors, “The Big One’s” 8.2 magnitude quake may not be as strong as it seems. However, PhiVolcs said that the areas along the West Valley Fault are of utmost consideration. It has a concentration of populace and high-rise structures.
DOOMSDAY SCENARIO
Another of urgent concern is the cycle: the West Valley Fault is moving every 357 years. The recurrence interval for the “Big One” to happen in the Philippines is 357 years.
Considering that the last major earthquake on the 100-kilometer West Valley Fault which crosses Metro Manila and nearby provinces, was in 1658. It has been 367 years since the this fault shook the region.
If we were to believe the Manila Trench report, “The Big One” could paint a doomsday scenario “sometime soon”.
“The entire Metro Manila, parts of Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna will experience an earthquake that is categorized as very destructive,” reported PhiVolcs supervising science research specialist and geologist Jeffrey Perez.
TERRIFYING PROSPECT
Indeed, the thought of a large-magnitude earthquake hitting these areas is a terrifying prospect.
From 2022 to 2024, PhiVolcs has recorded an average of 20 earthquakes daily.
According to the 2023 Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) report on the Risk Analysis Project, if this occurs, around 55,000 could die, 14,000 people would suffer very serious injuries, an additional 112,000 cases of serious injury, and 385,000 slightly injured.
Destruction could cover 105,434,400 square meters while the 2013 report pegged an economic loss of around P2.269 trillion.
ANY TIME SOON
Amid an imminent killer earthquake, the government must aggressively take the lead in disaster preparedness.
Already, after taking the cue from the seismic experts, the government has drawn a comprehensive contingency plan that would put in place measures to minimize damages and casualties in view of a Magnitude 8.2 earthquake which may strike any time soon.
Studies showed the “Big One” could directly hit 84 barangays in Metro Manila and the adjoining provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal encompassing the East and West Valley Faultline.
There’s just one glitch though.
The 2025 budget failed to allocate a particular fund just for the “Big One” which is already nine years past the predicted “maturity.”
