Inner Truth

Growth Of Agri Was Expected

WHILE THE DEPARTMENT of Agriculture could be celebrating the 1.9 percent growth in agricultural output (year on year) during the first quarter, the damper is that “this is to be expected” based on historical data.

It was aquaculture and fisheries that led the growth at 1.9 percent in January to March at P537.74 billion, faster than the 0.2 percent growth in the first quarter of 2024. This subsector had a turnaround from the revised 2 percent contraction in the last quarter of 2024, ending the three quarters decline.

“We are optimistic that the recovery in the first quarter signals momentum for the latter half of the year — especially as we bring new infrastructure online such as cold storage facilities and rice processing systems,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel, Jr. said in a statement.

AS EXPECTED

But former DA Fermin D. Adriano said the first-quarter agricultural output results were “expected.”

Adriano told Business World that “(This follows the) normal pattern of agri performance for first quarter of the year given the absence of typhoons and extreme weather occurrences… The harvest season extends in the first quarter of the year. Wait till the second quarter, which is planting (lean supply) season for rice and intense heat affects water supply for irrigation,” he told the paper.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the value of agriculture and fisheries production rose by 1.9 percent in the first quarter with crops, poultry and fisheries recording improvements while the livestock sector continued to decline in that period. The PSA cited constant 2018 prices. But at current prices, the value of production in agriculture and fisheries rose by 2.3 percent in the first quarter of P623.66 billion.

Crop production, which accounted for 57 percent of the total, increased by 1 percent to P249.61 billion in the January-to-March period. This was a turnaround from the 0.3 percent decline in the same period last year.

Palay or unmilled rice production inched up by 0.3 percent, an improvement from the 2 percent contraction a year ago. The volume of palay production went up to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) in the period ending March from 4.69 million MMT in the same period last year.

OFFSETTING THE DECLINE

The DA said that yield reached a record high of 4.09 MT per hectare, offsetting the decline in rice-planted areas. It targets a record palay output of 20.46 MMT this year.

PSA data showed corn production declined by 5.1 percent in the first quarter, a reversal of the 0.5 percent growth last year.

Coconut output slipped by 0.3 percent, slower than the 3.3 percent decline in the same quarter in 2024.

Crops that saw a double-digit increase in the value of output include tobacco (80.4 percent), cacao (23.6 percent), sugarcane (19 percent), rubber (13.6 percent), coffee (10.7 percent) and mongo (10.1 percent).

Abaca value of production contracted 15.4 percent, sweet potato (9.4 percent), mango (7.5 percent), cabbage (6.4 percent) and calamansi (0.8 percent).

PSA data showed the poultry sector grew by 9.4 percent to P75.22 billion, contributing 17.2 percent to total farm production.

The value of chicken egg production rose by 12.1 percent, while chicken output increased by 8.7 percent and duck by 1.5 percent. Duck egg production declined by 2.2 percent in the first quarter.

“We can see a little shift in the consumption pattern of consumers to the poultry sector as a source of food protein due to higher prices of meat, especially of hogs,” Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc. President Danilo V. Fausto said. “This can be seen in the good performance of chicken and egg production and decrease in growth of the hog sector.” 

THE TRUMP TARIFF

Fausto added that the local poultry industry may face challenges with increased imports from the US as it will experience headwinds “if the US will require the entry of more chicken to the country as a bargaining chip to reconsider the tariff imposed by Trump for Philippine exports to the US.”

The value of livestock production continued to decline in the first quarter. Hog production slumped by 3.7 percent in the first quarter, while carabao output dipped by 0.2 percent. Dairy production saw growth(10.5 percent), cattle (1.3 percent), and goat (1.2 percent).

PSA data showed livestock output slipped by 2.8 percent to P57.82 billion in the period ending March, although the pace of decline was slower than 3.5 percent in the same quarter last year. This accounted for 13.2 percent of the total farm output.

“Livestock contraction is expected as the much-vaunted ASF (African Swine Fever) vaccine of the DA is ineffective with little adoption by hog raisers,” Adriano said.

The DA in March said it was expecting the approval of the Food and Drug Administration by April for the commercial rollout of ASF vaccines from Vietnam “something not tested even in that country). “Hopefully, we could also begin later this year the commercial roll out of the long-awaited vaccine for ASF,” to kickoff the DA’s hog repopulation effort,”  Laurel said.

Bureau of Animal Industry data as of April 11 showed ASF had been detected in 54 villages, up from 39 as of March 14.