JUST when the 20th Congress is about to commence what looks more like a refined legislative mandate embarking on impeachment, Vice President Sara Duterte announced her intent to run for the highest elective position in the country.
For one, VP Sara knows only too well that it’s “way too early” to declare political plans, and such a move would make her an open target of politicians who are not keen on the idea of seeing another Duterte at the helm of Malacanang.
So what exactly could have compelled VP Sara to make an early declaration of her political plans?
NOTHING TO LOSE
With four verified impeachment complaints filed against her, there is a possibility that she’ll be convicted over a long list of allegations deemed red flags under the 1987 Constitution.
But a masterful gambit primarily designed to divide Congress may be more than enough to avert what looks more like a grand plan to put an exclamation point on her political career.
By announcing her 2028 presidential bid, Sara is looking at dislodging both the Senate and the House of Representatives by forcing legislators to take a stand — either they join her or face the consequences when she finally gets elected as the 18th President.
The move would also reinvigorate her flailing supporters from as many societal camps as possible, who are having second thoughts amid what she claimed as a “well-funded demolition job against her.”
SO MUCH TO GAIN
Controversial as she has always been, any news involving Sara attracts both local and foreign media.
With the declaration of her 2028 political plans, an impeachment trial doesn’t only keep her popular, but could also be seen as a “political persecution” meant to disparage Duterte’s chances.
Taking cue from how the local and foreign media are reporting their stories, Sara has so far been succeeding in sidetracking all issues against her, as people would now be on guard in their utterances and writings about her, should she win in 2028.
Recent surveys on the Philippine government officials’ trust and approval rating showed Sara at the forefront — far “more trustworthy” than any other government officials under the Marcos administration.
Marcos himself failed to impress the public in the latest SWS Survey where he got a —3 trust rating.
MIND CONDITIONING
As it is, she now dons a better image and popularity in surveys – of course, a mind conditioning strategy – compared to her erstwhile Uniteam partner, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
She is the trending news in global media outlets — and even on social media. With just a little more makeover of her image (which naturally comes with bulldozing those who are against her) and with Cebu and the entire Mindanao solid behind her, she has better chances to win against whoever Marcos would anoint.
Far fetched as it might sound, another potential outcome of her early announcement could be an easing by the International Criminal Court in trying her detained father, former President Rodrigo Duterte in the Hague, the Netherlands.
Naturally, the victims of his deadly war on drugs will be silenced by her potential reign.
CLOUD OF INFLUENCE
An early indication of just how powerful the Duterte clan still is can be seen with the Supreme Court (dominated by her father’s appointees) junking the impeachment by the lower house over procedural lapses.
Her announcement comes just days before her father, Rodrigo, begins a pre-trial hearing at the ICC in the Netherlands over crimes against humanity committed as part of a brutal crackdown on drugs.
“I offer my life, my strength, and my future in the service of our nation,” she said at a press briefing where she assailed Marcos’ record and sincerity in public service.
Duterte accused Marcos of corruption in her brief speech, saying he had failed to live up to his word during the short-lived alliance that saw them storm to a landslide victory in 2022. However, in her short Cabinet position at the Department of Education, she herself had engaged in anomalous transactions and dubious use of her confidential funds (both as vice president and DepEd secretary).
DRAWING THE LINE
As Michael Henry Yusingco, senior research fellow at the Ateneo Policy Center, told Agence France Presse, the campaign announcement was a “big risk,” but Duterte’s solid base of support in the family stronghold Mindanao gave her a real advantage.
“Conventional thinking would say she has the best chance of winning. Survey numbers are in her favor,” he said, while adding that her father’s physical absence might discourage supporters.
Cleve Arguelles, president of Manila-based WR Numero Research, suggested Duterte’s public declaration could be more about keeping allies in line at a time of political uncertainty.
“By projecting an inevitable 2028 run, she raises the perceived cost of defection — reminding politicians in Congress that her faction could still return to power,” he said.
The announcement was aimed at drawing “a clear line among those who are with her or against her, given the ICC and the impeachment (cases),” said Jean Franco, political science professor at the University of the Philippines.
Philippine presidents are limited to a single six-year term.
IMPEACHMENT PUSH
Yusingco added that the Marcos administration is likely to become more openly hostile. “Behind the scenes, they’ll probably push for her impeachment,” he said.
Duterte has seen the impeachment bid against her revived in recent weeks, with members of the Philippine clergy filing a case against her on February 9, one of three logged within days.
Under the 1987 Constitution, an impeachment triggers a Senate trial. A guilty verdict would result in Duterte’s perpetual disqualification from any government position.
A pair of impeachment complaints against Marcos, meanwhile, were recently tossed out by the House of Representatives justice committee, which said they lacked the necessary substance.
JUNIOR’S HEADWINDS
But Marcos is facing his own headwinds, with the archipelago nation roiling over a scandal involving bogus flood-control projects believed to have cost taxpayers billions of dollars, the AFP said.
The President has seen friend and foe alike, including a congressman cousin, swept up in the political firestorm since he first put the issue centerstage in a July national address.
On Wednesday, Marcos spokesperson Claire Castro said the VP should apologise for the “corruption and misuse of funds” cited in the impeachment complaints against her before attacking the president’s record.
Marcos, she added, had said only “good luck” in response to the news of Duterte’s candidacy.
The two former allies have been engaged in a high-stakes political brawl that erupted within weeks of their 2022 win in the presidential election, when the vice president was denied her favored cabinet portfolios (the defense department) and instead named education secretary.
SARA THE FRONTRUNNER
Despite impeachment bids, political analyst Richard Heydarian considers Sara as the candidate to beat come the 2028 presidential election.
“She is still the prohibitive frontrunner in a race where most potential rivals are still hedging,” said Heydarian in a text to Inquirer on Wednesday.
“So it’s a narrative shift tactic to remind everyone of her political capital and enduring popularity,” he continued.
The setbacks Heydarian is referring to are the possible trial of her father before the ICC; the possible issuance of ICC arrest warrants against her allies – Senators Ronald Dela Rosa and Bong Go; and the possible impeachment trial against her.
“Timing suggests its projection of strength amid major setbacks for her camp,” Heydarian said. “She feels the pressure to display defiance and determinism to win the Malacañang back for her dynasty.”
ROOM TO FINETUNE
Yusingco also said “announcing this early gives Sara a chance to fine-tune her strategy closer to the election,” as Duterte’s impeachment charges “might also shrink the pool of potential financial backers she needs to run a strong campaign.”
He added that this move could prompt the Marcos camp to push for Duterte’s impeachment “behind the scenes.”
Yusingco said “she took a big risk too,” since “at this point, the Marcos administration will expectedly treat her with more hostility and aggression.”
“She has no choice but to be as vitriolic in her response,” he continued.
“She might need to reveal more damning information that led to the UniTeam and its disintegration,” Yusingco said, referring to the moniker used by Marcos and Duterte when they were running mates in the 2022 elections.
The political clans of Marcos and Duterte have been embroiled in a bitter feud marked by her resignation in June 2024 as education secretary.
MAKE OR BREAK
The feud became more intense after Marcos administration allowed the ICC to arrest Duterte, who faces crimes against humanity charges due to his drug war which reportedly killed thousands, based on official government data.
The risk of such an early announcement is that Duterte could even undermine her own candidacy by making herself a target of insidious propaganda operations aimed at derailing her bid to win the presidency in 2028, similar to what happened with former Vice President Jejomar Binay in the 2016 polls.
Duterte’s early declaration of her candidacy is the exact opposite of her father when he successfully ran for president in 2016, by repeatedly denying his aspiration only to enter the race through substitution.
Sara used a somewhat similar tactic when she remained mum about her political ambitions until she filed her candidacy to become vice president in 2021.
REFINING NARRATIVES
Duterte said that delaying her announcement won’t matter anymore since she had been vilified by those who feel threatened by her candidacy —“Politicians usually avoid announcing early to avoid being targeted, but this administration had already been destroying my name for a long time.”
Analysts and activist lawmakers opine that Sara aims to reframe news narratives by putting a spotlight on her candidacy instead of the incriminating corruption evidence that could be presented in committee hearings in the coming days and weeks.
She could be seeking to downplay the clamor for accountability against her and her father by portraying her family as victims of political persecution.
Since impeachment is a political process, her early announcement could also be her way of signaling her appeal or threat to local politicians about the prospect of switching allegiances as she consolidates her electoral base, Rappler noted.
FLOODGATE SCANDAL
The vicious verbal exchange between Marcos and Duterte drowned the legitimate issues involving the country’s governance, economic matters, and the people’s demand for accountability.
Both Marcos and Duterte are liable for the corruption crisis engulfing the nation today, but they are actively maneuvering not just for influence but also to avoid being held accountable.
Duterte has dismissed the impeachment case against her as a form of politicking that does nothing to solve the country’s woes. What she failed to realize was that her early electoral announcement would actually intensify partisan debates and political divisiveness amid rising social discontent and the people’s assertion for politicians to focus on improving the country’s living conditions, Rappler added.
“With the possibility of a second impeachment and the possibility of her being impeached, she might as well shift the narrative and make the impeachment and the attacks on her, color it as a political ploy to knock her off the 2028 race,” said Julio Teehankee, political science professor at De La Salle University.
But the move also carries risks, said Ederson Tapia, professor of public administration at the University of Makati, as it could intensify political attacks against her and that could undermine her presidential ambition.