Climate Goals at Risk, CCC Doing Nothing?

“Saving our planet, lifting people out of poverty, advancing economic growth… these are one and the same fight. We must connect the dots between climate change, water scarcity, energy shortages, global health, food security and women’s empowerment. Solutions to one problem must be solutions for all.” — Former United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon

IT WAS IN 2009 when the Climate Change Commission was established as the lead policy-making body tasked to coordinate, monitor and evaluate government programs and ensure mainstreaming of climate change in national, local and sectoral development plans towards a climate-resilient and climate-smart Philippines.

However, 17 years have passed and despite the agency’s claims that it is performing to the best of its ability to fulfill its mandate, the Philippines is “unlikely on track” to deliver its 2030 climate targets due to the absence of Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS). 

This is according to ‘The Southeast Asia’s Green Economy Report 2026: The New Calculus’ published by Bain & Company and Standard Chartered.

LT-LEDS are voluntary frameworks used by Paris Agreement signatories to map out their transitions to net zero. These are critical to unlocking Development Finance Institution and institutional capital currently flowing to peers with clearer, more strategic, long-term plans.

Despite the strategies, though, our  country’s green capital expenditure (capex) in 2025 reached only 40 to 45 percent of the level required to meet 2030 decarbonization targets. Thus  the  shortfall puts the Philippines at risk of missing out on the climate and decarbonization funding that is flowing to other Southeast Asian markets with more defined roadmaps.

Based on the Bain report, estimates indicate that Southeast Asia’s green economy has grown to US$290 billion and is projected to reach $430 billion by 2030, expanding at 8 to 9 percent annually. Yet the Philippines “continues to lag, especially on the investment front.” 

By contrast, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia are moving faster on electric vehicle (EV) adoption and renewable energy (RE) deployment. Here, EV adoption has regretfully maintained a snail’s pace since 2010.

Another major bottleneck is the power grid where investment in transmission and distribution fell 3 percent from 2015 to 2025 even as energy demand grew to about 5 percent per year. For the Philippines, the Luzon interisland transmission and distribution backbone is identified as the key area for investment to integrate more RE and support rising demand from data centers and industry.

When it comes to policy, the Bain report highlights some positive signals for the Philippines. The country offers VAT zero rating for RE projects and reduced import tariffs for EVs. 

The report recommends the promotion of fleet electrification to build EV demand and attract assembly operations.

But despite the region’s potential, the report has identified its “conversion problem” or a growing gap between ambition and delivery. For example, more than 35 percent of announced green capex in the region’s power and EV value chains have not made it to deployment. 

Of approximately $540 billion in green capex announced across Southeast Asia’s power and EV value chains between now and 2030, only around $315 billion is on a credible path to deployment under current conditions. 

The gap occurred because unlike before, investment decisions are no longer driven by climate ambition alone; energy security, economic growth and the ability to deliver projects now carry equal weight. 

Bain & Company partner Dale Hardcastle says, “Capital is flowing where commercial demand, energy security and policy that delivers infrastructure come together—and stalling where any of the three is missing, even where targets remain ambitious.” 

Closing the power, grid and EV deployment gap across the region could unlock an additional $80 billion in green capital expenditure by 2030, a 25-percent uplift on the baseline. 

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