Despite the government cheering its efforts to control inflation this year, the reality is the lower global prices of crude have been on a downtrend despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, also contributing significantly to the downtrend of the consumer price index.
This, as the inflation rate in March this year settled at 1.8 percent, marking a nearly five-year low, mainly due to the slower price increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages, particularly lower prices of rice.
Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) Undersecretary Claire Dennis Mapa said in a press briefing that last month’s inflation was lower than the rate in February 2025 at 2.1 percent and the 3.7 percent in March 2024. Also, the inflation last month was the lowest since June 2020.
While the PSA attributed the slower pace of price increases in March 2025 to the easing of food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation at 2.2 percent from 2.6 percent a month ago, inflation in the transport group recorded -1.1 percent in March 2025 from -0.2 percent in February 2025.
This sector contributed 27 percent to the downtrend in inflation in the previous month due to lower prices of gasoline and diesel, as well as slower pace in fare increase in passenger road transport.
A check of global oil prices showed these were on a downtrend since early this year, hitting below $65 per barrel (WTI) in the latter part of March. This is a significant decrease from the above $80 per barrel (WTI) in March last year,
And while food and non-alcoholic beverages shared 50.2 percent to the downtrend in inflation, the prices of food also depend on the cost of fuel as food products need to be transported.
When it comes to food inflation in particular, cereals and cereal products recorded a deflation, or decrease in prices, of 5.2 percent last month from a deflation of 3 percent in February 2025.
This commodity group includes rice, which recorded negative inflation for the past three months: -2.3 percent in January, -8.4 percent in February, and -7.7 percent in March.
Mapa said that since the Executive Order 62 took effect in July 2024, which reduced the tariff on imported rice, prices of the staple have substantially declined.
“Kung i-compare natin noong—say, base natin noong July 2024, kung saan nagsimula ‘yong reduction sa tariff, bumaba na rin substantially ‘yong presyo ng bigas per kilo [If we compare it to—(let’s) say, based on July 2024, when the tariff reduction started, the price of rice per kilogram has substantially decreased],” he said.
Citing PSA data, Mapa said comparing the prices from July 2024 to March 2025, average price reduction for regular milled rice was at P4.90, or from P51.11 per kilo to P46.09 per kilogram (kg).
Well milled rice also declined in the same period by P4.19 per kg., or from P56.44 per kg. to P52.25 per kg., and by P2.60 per kg. for special rice, or from P64.75 per kg. to P62.15 per kg.
However, the price of regular milled rice in July 2023 was P41 per kg, and P45 per kg for well-milled rice. Meanwhile, restaurants and accommodation services, with an inflation of 2.3 percent, shared 16 percent to the downtrend of inflation last month.
