THE RECENT STATEMENT of Vice President Sara Duterte warning of an impending bloodbath must not be dismissed lightly. While some commentators have downplayed it as mere rhetoric or exaggerated it as a threat of physical violence, it is better understood as a metaphor for an impending political bloodbath—a looming political civil war that threatens to fracture the Philippine political landscape even further.
This confrontation, a house divided against itself, carries long-term implications for the future of Philippine governance and democracy.
‘[Our] political history provides precedent for this kind of selective political annihilation, where victors weaponize state power to purge opponents and consolidate their dominance.’
VP Duterte has already mobilized her legal team and instructed her allies to go all out in preparing for her defense against the anticipated impeachment proceedings. She fully expects the sitting administration, to match this intensity with its own full-blown political offensive.
WHO WILL SURVIVE?
In essence, Duterte is daring her political rivals to bring forward everything they have, challenging them to engage in an all-or-nothing battle where only the strongest survive—matira ang matibay.
This is the very essence of what political scientists describe as high-stakes elite conflict, where rival factions within the ruling class engage in winner-take-all struggles that threaten institutional stability. These kinds of conflicts are rarely about policy differences; rather, they are power struggles aimed at monopolizing state resources and control over political institutions.
Political careers will rise and fall based on which side individuals choose, reinforcing clientelism and factional loyalties that have long characterized Philippine politics.
RETRIBUTION FOLLOWS
In her own words, Duterte has indicated that if she loses—if she is impeached or barred from seeking the presidency—so be it. If she is imprisoned like her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, she claims she is prepared for that outcome as well.
This reveals a political strategy scholars refer to as “high-risk, high-reward” political gambling, where actors commit all their resources to a single defining battle, knowing full well that defeat could mean political death.
But should she survive and emerge victorious, Duterte has made it clear that political retribution will follow.
All those who allied with the administration are already marked, and she has promised to destroy their political careers.
TRACK RECORD
Philippine political history provides precedent for this kind of selective political annihilation, where victors weaponize state power to purge opponents and consolidate their dominance.
The Duterte family’s track record shows they possess the capacity, willingness, and motivation to carry out such reprisals.
This impeachment battle will likely deepen political polarization and fracture the country even further. Both sides will present themselves as the moral alternative—framing their struggle as a battle of good versus evil, corrupt versus incorruptible, a tactic widely recognized in political science as “moralized partisanship”. Such framing not only fuels division but also delegitimizes institutional checks and balances, weakening democratic accountability.
GEOGRAPHIC WAR
The political elites from the north are poised to face off against the political elites from the south. This is a geographic and factional civil war in the making—one that the Philippines has never fully experienced in modern times but which resembles factional elite fragmentation seen in other fragile democracies.
While the outcome of this political bloodbath remains uncertain, one thing is clear: whoever emerges victorious will dominate Philippine politics for years to come.
With such dominance, the winner will likely undermine the already fragile system of checks and balances, paving the way for the institutionalization of corruption at unprecedented levels. The state will become a personal fiefdom of the victorious political dynasty, further marginalizing the interests of ordinary Filipinos.
FILIPINOS STAND TO LOSE
Indeed, regardless of who wins this battle, it is the Filipino people who stand to lose the most. Both camps have histories of exploiting public resources for personal and political gain.
As political scientist Paul Hutchcroft in his outstaning book , Booty Capitalism, argued, the Philippine state has long been “captured by oligarchic interests,” and this upcoming political confrontation threatens to entrench that capture even further.
In light of this, the Filipino people must resist becoming mere pawns in this elite power struggle. We must remain vigilant, critical, and politically aware.
We must refuse to be instruments of their factional war. Our loyalty should not lie with any political dynasty, especially when both sides have demonstrated a capacity for exploitation and authoritarian tendencies.
EROSION OF DEMOCRACY
The erosion of democracy often begins not with a single violent act, but with the normalization of elite manipulation and the decay of democratic norms. This is why the true fight is not between these rival political families but against the entrenched culture of deception, greed, and corruption that has long oppressed the Filipino people.
It is time for ordinary citizens to wake up, unite, and stand for genuine systemic change for the future of the nation.
The people must reclaim the democratic institutions that have been captured by elite interests and demand transparency, accountability, and real reform. Only then can the cycle of elite domination be broken.
(Editor’s Note: Dr. Raymund E. Narag is an associate professor at the on Criminology and Criminal Justice at the Southern Illinois University. He also sudied at the University of the Philippines.)