Sunday, March 29, 2026

Dubious Data Guesstimates 

I ALWAYS RELUCTANTLY refer to the production data being reported (or peddled as far I am concerned) by the Department of Agriculture and the Philippine Statistics Authority. 

Whenever I go to the field, I hear farmers complain that whatever is being reported is highly inaccurate and they question how such production estimates are being arrived at (to me they are all guesses or guess-timates).

Which is why I am so delighted that Senator Francis Pangilinan (who must already have been exhausted in trying to find a middle ground in the production– both historical and future– forecasts of both agencies) urged them both to harmonize and reconcile their data especially as price crunch hits the farmers terribly.

He was wary over the onion production which the DA said stood at 245,988 metric tons in 2025 while PSA– citing certain factors for the discrepancy in survey methodology – said onion output that year was 308,661 MT.

In short the DA’s onion output in relation to demand showed a deficit (understandably to accommodate the surging request of industrial users like hotels, resorts and restaurants for more imports of onions citing local production shortfalls) while the PSA’s data showed surplus.

With the daily per capita consumption at about 731 MT, PSA’s figures would result in a surplus, while the DA’s would lead to a deficit.

It is not just with onions that such data discrepancies are highlighted but in almost all food items that can be produced by local farmers, but which for reasons known only to DA and its bureaus, are being peddled as always in short supply thereby harping on the urgency to import more. 

Our rice imports have never gone down– but always exceed market demand and yet retail prices never fall; our sugar imports plus artificial sweeteners have been discouraging local planters to keep producing the crop; our vegetables are being dwarfed by imports and all our meat products, including eggs, are being imported, when local supplies are sufficient to feed our people. 

Our fishery products are abundant yet we opt to buy from China– particularly the galunggong and mackerels that were fished right at the West Philippine Sea. In Tagalog, ginigisa tayo sa sarili nating mantika.

We even import salt, garlic, and most fruits when we have an abundance of our local products.

Why the penchant for imports– obviously some parties are raking it in and your guess is as good as mine.

Pangilinan told both agencies that unless they can present a signed memorandum of agreement (MOA) harmonizing their data on projected yield, supply, consumption, and deficit their proposed budgets for 2027 might not breeze through easily in his committee.

The move comes as farmgate prices of the crop in Occidental Mindoro have plunged to a low of P23 per kilo, which has triggered the government to issue a raft of interventions to cushion its impact on farmers, reported Business Mirror.

“I’d like to see that MOA signed before we approve your [respective] budgets for 2027,” Pangilinan said during a hearing of the Committee on Agriculture, Food and Agrarian Reform on Thursday.

“You need to talk and come up with a middle-ground data based on both your respective research. There should be joint data based on DA and PSA understanding of the onion supply, estimated consumption.”

ELIMINATE THE GAP

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. earlier voiced his wish to eliminate the gap between farmgate and retail prices by 30 percent to temper volatility and ensure that prices remain stable for farmers and consumers.

He is banking on the agency’s command center to gather real-time farmgate prices of farm products nationwide. The central platform is designed to fast-track data collection and aid the agency in policymaking.

“We do have real-time farmgate prices, but it’s in patches. We need more regular farmgate data from every province or every municipality, if possible,” Tiu Laurel previously told reporters.

He cited the “clear gap” between farmgate prices of onions at around P35 to P50 per kilo and retail prices ranged at P100 to P120 per kilo.

Laurel said this will enable the DA to monitor the trend between farmgate and retail prices, study what causes the gap in between, keep track of the traders, and where farm products end up.

“So, at the end of the day, it’s possible that retail prices will go down in the market and the farmgate prices for farmers will increase,” he said.

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