THE University of Asia & the Pacific Center for Food and Agri business (UA&P-CFA) sees a “flat” growth for the crucial food base of the country—the agriculture, fisheries and the forestry cluster of 0.5% decline and 0.5% growth.”
This comes after a 3.1 percent expansion in 2025, the cluster’s strongest in five years, based on the data of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), reported the Manila Times.
Growth was driven by poultry (9.1%), other agricultural activities and services (3.9%), crops (3.1%), and fisheries (0.5%), while livestock and forestry declined 2.0 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
UA&P-CFA executive director Marie Annette Dacul said the 2025 growth was not a breakthrough, but largely a recovery from a 1.5% the year before, when the country was hit by both La Niña and El Niño.
Poultry should remain the strongest performer, growing 7.5-8.5% after a 7.0% first-quarter expansion, supported by steady demand and efficient commercial production.
Livestock is projected to grow 4.0-5.0 percent, continuing a gradual recovery from African swine fever (ASF), though full recovery will take time.
Crop production is expected to decline 3.0-4.0 percent, following a 2.6 percent drop in the first quarter, pressured by high input costs and weather uncertainty, the Times added.
Fisheries output will contract to 3.0-4.0% after a 5.0 percent first-quarter decline, hurt by climate variability and high fuel costs tied to the US-Iran War in the Middle East.
UA&P-CFA flagged several risks facing the cluster: environmental threats such as El Niño, more frequent typhoons, and emerging water scarcity; economic pressures including high input costs and food inflation; pathological risks like pest infestations, ASF, and avian influenza; and systemic vulnerabilities tied to import dependency and exposure to geopolitical and energy shocks.
To address these concerns, it recommended focusing on six priority areas: climate-smart agriculture; digital agriculture; high-value agriculture; agribusiness processing; logistics modernization; and export development.
Dacul cited measures such as weather-resilient crop varieties, precision water management, and modernized cold chain and logistics systems to reduce post-harvest losses.
She also urged a shift toward high-value crops, greater investment in value-added processing, and targeting niche export markets for Philippine agricultural products.
“The challenge for the next decade is no longer just about producing more food; it’s about resilience,” Dacul said.