“There have been three occurrences of extreme El Niño events during the modern observational period (1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016), all characterized by pronounced rainfall in the normally dry equatorial East Pacific,” according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
SINCE FEBRUARY 28, much of the attention of the globe has been on the Middle East war that has caused global oil prices to increase to record levels, affecting mostly countries dependent on energy imports.
But there is one crisis that can strike harder than the Middle East war – one that is courtesy of nature: A “Godzilla El Niño.”
Paul Roundy, a prominent Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Albay (State University of New York), is among the scientists who have issued a warming on the upcoming extreme or “Godzilla El Niño.”
He warned that there is a “real potential for the strongest El Niño in 140 years.”
For its part, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned last April 15 that the probability of a moderate to strong El Niño in the last quarter of this year until early 2027 has risen to 92 percent.
In March, PAGASA declared a 55 percent probability of an El Niño developing in the next six months.
And the bad news is the Godzilla El Nino can make 2027 one of the hottest years on record, according to Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini.
“A strong El Niño could plausibly push global temperatures to new record levels in late 2026 and into 2027,” he told PBS in an interview.
As always, Southeast Asia will experience dry spells and droughts during El Nino events, while parts of Africa will get heavy rains.
Extreme or Godzilla-type El Ninos arenothing new, according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), stating that powerful El Ninos happen during an “observational period.”
“There have been three occurrences of extreme El Niño events during the modern observational period (1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016), all characterized by pronounced rainfall in the normally dry equatorial East Pacific,” it said.
Possible impact
The vulnerability of the Philippines to El Niño events can be clearly seen in the 2023-2024 dry spell that hit the country, which was not extreme, and the 2015-2016 extreme El Niño.
From September 2023 to August 2024, rice inflation was at double digits and reached a 15-year high of 24.4 percent in March 2024.It was on September 2024 that rice inflation hit single digit or 5.7 percent.
The major factor for the high rice inflation for the 11 months starting September 2023 were dry spells hitting rice areas nationwide.
The toll to agriculture reached P15.3 billion, affecting 333,195 farmers and fishers in 15 regions nationwide, according to the Department of Agriculture-Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Operations Center.
Total volume of damage amounted to 784,344 metric tons (MT), from 270,855 hectares of agricultural land.
While those figures are alarming, the damage from extreme the El Niño in 2015-2016 that lasted for 18 months destroyed 1.48 million MT of crops.
The bad news is the 2015-2016 extreme El Niño was followed by a series of typhoons, or 18 in total, according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia (ESCAP).
The UN agency said 2015-2016 extreme El Niño and the storms that followed it caused $2 billion (about $120 billion) in economic damage to the Philippines.
Surprisingly, scientists labeled the 2016 La Niña as “weak” despite powerful storms hitting the Philippines.
One such storm was Super Typhoon Haima, locally known as Lawin, that struck the northernmost parts of the country in October 2016 with strong winds of 225 kph and gustiness of 315 kph.
According to available data, more than 1.2 million people were affected and more than 200,000 people displaced by Lawin.
As to how government is preparing for the next El Niño is not yet well detailed. But the PAGASA has been doing a somewhatexcellent job at tracking the onset of El Niño, and issuing warnings early on.
For example, it was in July 2023 that PAGASA said that there was 56 percent chance that the El Niño will become moderate and strong in the last quarter of 2023.
In February 2024, the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) said that 41 provinces were already affected by the El Niño. Also, rice inflation reached a new high of 24.4 percent in March, highlighting the devastating effect of the 2023-2024 El Niño that was not extreme or had a Godzilla character.
