EVER SINCE THE war in Iran was staged in February by Israel with the full backing of America, poor countries and their dirt poor citizenries have had to go through the suffering and crucifixion of high prices of food, declining availability of mass transport because of high fuel cost and the government’s lethargic response to the crisis that affects the majority of Filipinos.
Up to this time, rice prices have been rising almost daily– leaving very little funds for the ordinary people to afford the leaps in prices of vegetables, cooking oil, fish, egg and meat and LPG ,the common cooking fuel– for their families’ use.
Newspapers and television harp on what government officials pronounce about their attempts to improve the situation, but hardly do they make an analysis of how the spiralling prices have been causing more people to cut on their meals, leading to more nutritional and financial hunger, poverty and escalating hopelessness.
Everyone– from market vendors,grocery operators and consumers– are complaining about the daily price escalations but it seems like the government seems to not care about the plight of the general public. There’s too much talk about plans but very little, if any, about real actions on the ground.
Should the Middle East crisis rage longer reaching the second half of 2026, the country is facing the specter of El NIno– prolonged dry spell– which would add to scourging and misery of the common tao in terms of higher water bills, scarcer water drops from the taps and irrigation water for farms and higher health diseases from dry tongues and throats to rising skin cancers.
PIDS STUDY
A study of government think tank– Philippine Institute for Development Studies– noted that the poorest Filipinos are hit hardest by the global oil shock, not at the pump but at the dinner table, as higher fuel costs ripple through food prices.
A policy note by Adoracion M. Navarro, a senior research fellow at PIDS said the impact of rising oil prices goes beyond transport and electricity but on food costs that could further squeeze household budgets, especially among low-income groups.
While fuel inflation is the initial shock, the bigger risk lies in how higher transport and production costs feed into food prices, which carry a heavier weight in household spending.
The 2021 Family Income and Expenditure Survey of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the poorest decile spends 64.1 percent of its budget on food as against the 30.9 percent of the richest decile.
This means any increase in food prices is “inherently regressive,” the report said.
“The poorest households, with their high food expenditure shares and limited income flexibility, bear the brunt of second-round inflation effects. In contrast, higher-income households are relatively insulated,” it also said.
The Bangko Sentral reported that March inflation hit 3.1 to 3.9 percent.
PIDS urged policymakers to look beyond aggregate indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and the current account, warning that these may “obscure the unequal burden” of the shock but more on targeted measures, including direct income or consumption support for poorer households, subsidies for vulnerable sectors, protection of real wages, and efforts to stabilize food supply.
“Ultimately, the central policy problem is not pump prices per se and how to subsidize oil consumption through universal fiscal absorption of the price shock (which benefits higher-income groups more than the poor). The central policy problem is how to address distributional asymmetry to mitigate the socioeconomic impacts of the crisis,” it said.
DA eyes price cap on rice
The Department of Agriculture said it is seriously considering putting a price cap on rice– now retailing beyond government’s SRP (suggested retail prices)– at over P56 and above per kilo, from just P45 a few months ago.
The President said he would soon issue an Executive Order approving the proposed price cap on rice– suggested by the DA and the National Price Coordinating Council of P50 per kilo for imported rice.
Similarly, the price of cooking gas in the country is going up by P10 per kilogram (kg), or P110 for an 11-kilogram cylinder, reported Business Mirror from an interview with LPG Marketers Association (LPGMA) president Arnel Ty with the first hike due today (April 1) initially for P5 per kg or P55 per 11kg cylinder and another upward adjustment on April 7 also for P5 per kilo. “We already implemented a P20 increase recently due to the increasing freight cost or what we call the shipping cost. That and the new contract price are the factors that led to the increase,” Ty said.
LPG prices in Visayas and Mindanao are more expensive due to higher transportation costs. “It is ranging from P100 to P150 per cylinder more expensive than the ones sold in Luzon,” said Ty.
With the increase, the standard retail price of LPG would range from P1,350 to P1,400 per tank in Luzon and around P1,600 per tank in Visayas and Mindanao. Ty said the country’s LPG supply will last until mid-May this year.
P20/k rice now in 627 Kadiwa centers
While the DA proposed a price cap of P45/kg to P48 in 36 major markets of Metro Manila, a check with the markets would show no retailer carrying this rate. Nothing can be found lower than P50 in public markets.
The president called such incidents as “profiteering” that happened with the surge in pump prices after the United States and Israel attacked Iran last February. “When the price of oil goes up, the price of food follows. That’s what we don’t want to happen,” Marcos said.
He said the Development Budget Coordination Council (DBCC) will meet this week to show their study on the possible impact of the Republic Act 12316, giving him the power to suspend or reduce the excise tax on petroleum products to help the government reduce the price of oil amid the Middle East crisis.
To ensure fresh agricultural and marine products remain accessible to consumers, the government has expanded its P20 rice program, now implemented in 627 centers nationwide. It will also start distributing fuel subsidies to 40,000 farmers and fuel vouchers to almost 100,000 fisherfolks.
El Nino
A looming El Niño in the second half of 2026 threatens to exacerbate the Middle East war’s impact on the global agriculture sector, according to BMI.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, made the pronouncement after a recent forecast of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The NOAA expects El Niño to emerge with a 62-percent probability over June to August 2026 and persist until the end of the year. It also assigns a 33-percent likelihood of a “strong” El Niño to develop in the fourth quarter of 2026.
“An El Niño occurring in H2 2026 would raise drought and flood risks in several major economies, with impacts varying depending on local conditions,” BMI said in its latest report.
On average, the research firm said the last three El Niño events to occur in the reference period have “more than doubled” the share of cropland exposed to droughts in Colombia and Indonesia, while it “nearly doubled” in Australia, Bangladesh, Peru, Thailand, Vietnam, and others.
It added that El Niño also increases the risk to more drought-exposed cropland in markets such as Egypt, Spain, and South Africa.
“Agriculture accounts for a substantial share of national income and employment in many of the affected markets, implying higher risks to economic growth in Q4 2026 and in 2027,” BMI said.
