The reciprocal tariffs being slapped by the United States on orders of President Donald Trump may be meant to make Europe weaker and give Russia more power, according to a Brussels-based trade analyst.
Also, Trump is using tariffs to stop China’s rising dominance in the economic sphere. To recall, the US slapped 145-percent tariffs on imports coming from China except for a number of electronic devices like smartphones.
“We need to recognize the arisen geopolitical and geostrategic shifts and realities,” said Weick. “Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin basically have the same agenda — a Europe squeezed between the US and Russia,” said Johann Weick.
“Neither Trump nor Putin wants a self-assertive Europe that is economically and eventually deterrent-defensive military strong, between them,” he added.
During the recent months, Trump has been sharply criticized for giving Russia more leverage in ending the Russo-Ukraine war that continues to rage.
However, Weick sees US and the EU possibly uniting to form a tariff alliance against China through negotiations, as the US wants to bring jobs, especially in the manufacturing sector, back to the country.
Weick said Trump is planning to form “a geostrategic security alliance with Europeans against China at some point” to unite “the common cause” against Beijing and the president’s sudden move to pause tariffs for 90 days was “a bargaining tactic.”
“The only thing Trump definitely does not want is an economically-dominating and militarily strong China,” he said.
Weick mentioned that Trump will get what he wants in terms of trade and emphasized that the trade dispute between the EU and the US will be resolved at some point as both sides, with their long and deep history, need each other, while China will seek alternatives amid this new environment in which exporting products to the US has become difficult — a shift of focus to Europe may be on the agenda, as well as price-dumping.
He noted that Trump has had a long history of bargaining and negotiations, especially in the real estate industry, and the EU could benefit from negotiations at more technical levels instead of having direct contact with him at the head of state level.
Weick noted that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is “too often at the forefront of the debate” and countries like France and Italy, which are in bilateral talks with Washington, make Europe look fragmented, which then strengthens Trump’s position.
However, the downside to that is Trump’s tariffs essentially will give rise to prices and the end consumer has to pay the high prices.
Weick noted that firms, when investing, expect predictability from the government, noting the 1930s trade protectionism and the following Wall Street Crash in the New York Stock Exchange, even though Trump insists tariffs provide an attractive environment.
